Canada recorded zero terrorist incidents in 2025 — the first time in the 18-year history of the Global Terrorism Index (GTI). Yet according to the very experts who launched the 2026 report yesterday in Ottawa, the country still faces real risks from jihadist spillover, diaspora conflicts, foiled plots, and online youth radicalization. So why has so much public and policy attention been fixated on far-right extremism as “Canada’s largest threat”?
The answer lies in the work of Ontario Tech University’s Barbara Perry, whose research has shaped Canada’s IMVE (Ideologically Motivated Violent Extremism) framework for years. Her data — which bundles graffiti, online harassment, and petty vandalism into sweeping “incident” counts — has been cited repeatedly to argue that right-wing extremism causes “far greater harm” than Islamist terrorism. But that narrative has been systematically dismantled by former CSIS analyst Phil Gurski and the hard numbers in the 2026 GTI.
The Perry Playbook: Broad Nets, Big Claims
Perry has been Canada’s most prominent academic voice on far-right extremism for over a decade. In a 2020 Al Jazeera interview, she declared unequivocally that “far-right violence is Canada’s largest threat,” citing “the number of active groups, the number of incidents associated with far-right extremists and the broader sympathy with the movement.” She and collaborator Ryan Scrivens have repeatedly claimed there are more than 300 “extremist” right-wing groups currently operating in Canada — an update from their earlier 2015 estimate of roughly 100 groups.
Notably, Perry has refused to publicly release the list or detailed evidence supporting the 300-group figure. In 2022, conservative outlet True North filed a Freedom of Information request seeking the list. Ontario Tech University and Perry fought to keep the information concealed, citing privacy protections under the Freedom of Information and Protection of Privacy Act (FIPPA). In September 2024, Ontario’s Information and Privacy Commissioner ruled in their favour, blocking public release of the list.
Her signature claim, repeated across media and parliamentary testimony, is that between 1985 and 2015, roughly 120 violent incidents could be attributed to far-right actors — compared to “a relative handful” from Islamist-inspired suspects. In a 2020 academic paper she co-authored, Perry wrote that “proponents of RWE have been responsible for far greater harm over the past decade than violent jihadi-inspired terrorists.”
The problem? Perry’s methodology counts incidents broadly defined — including property damage, online speech, and harassment — not Criminal Code terrorism offences that require intent to intimidate or coerce the public through violence. This expansive lens creates the appearance of a massive far-right surge while softer labels are applied elsewhere.
Gurski’s Direct Rebuttal: “Apples with Apples”
Phil Gurski, who spent 32 years at CSIS and now runs Borealis Threat and Risk Consulting, has called out this exact flaw. In a May 21, 2019, LinkedIn post titled “The need to compare terrorists apples with terrorist apples,” he singled out Perry and Scrivens’ report:
“A report by Barbara Perry and Ryan Scrivens in Canada on the rise in right-wing extremism is a very good example. In fairness, Perry and Scrivens write of right-wing ‘incidents’ and do not use the word ‘terrorism’ per se… The devil, however, is in the details. Many of the ‘attacks’ listed include graffiti and ‘harassment’ – do these constitute terrorism? Not in my books.”
Gurski has been consistent. On February 20, 2025, he told CBC News that government assessments had “under-represented the threat from Islamist groups and over-represented the threat from far-right groups, which they call IMVE… We’ve had virtually no arrests on the far right.” He made similar points on May 31, 2021, when he and Barbara Perry both testified before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Public Safety and National Security (SECU) during its study on ideologically motivated hate crime.
His point: resource allocation and threat rankings should be driven by actual terrorism charges and lethality — not a catch-all hate-incident tally.
The IMVE Framework: Perry’s Influence, Built-In Asymmetry
CSIS introduced the IMVE label in 2019 to replace outdated left/right binaries. It includes xenophobic, anti-authority, gender-driven, and other grievance-based violence. Perry’s research is frequently cited in IMVE discussions, parliamentary hearings, and policy papers. Yet the framework has a glaring flaw, the 2026 GTI data exposes: far-left and hybrid ideologies often fall through the cracks.
Far-left violence rarely earns its own dedicated terrorism category. Acts that might fit — church arsons, smoke bombs at places of worship, or politically motivated property destruction — are routinely downgraded to “mischief” or generic criminal violence. Meanwhile, far-right graffiti or online rhetoric gets logged as extremism or hate.
Case Study: Tumbler Ridge Mass Shooting — Violence, Not Extremism
The February 10, 2026, Tumbler Ridge massacre is the starkest recent example. Jesse Van Rootselaar (also known as Jesse Strang), an 18-year-old trans woman, killed eight people — her mother, half-brother, and six at Tumbler Ridge Secondary School — before dying by suicide. It was one of Canada’s deadliest school shootings.
RCMP investigators have classified it as a mass shooting and criminal act of violence, not terrorism or extremism. The motive remains “under investigation,” with reports citing nihilistic online content, obsession with prior mass shooters, mental health struggles, and a mix of trans imagery with antisemitic/racist posts. No terrorism charges. No official IMVE label.
Even groups that initially floated far-right angles (like the ADL) later walked back claims. The incident simply doesn’t fit the tidy far-right box — and because far-left or gender-driven grievances lack a dedicated terrorism silo, it vanishes from the extremism ledger entirely. This is the classification double-standard Gurski has warned about for years.
The 2026 GTI Verdict: Data Over Narrative
Yesterday’s Ottawa launch of the 2026 Global Terrorism Index delivered the empirical knockout. Globally, terrorism deaths fell 28% to 5,582 and incidents dropped 22% — the lowest since 2007. Canada: zero incidents or deaths in 2025, ranked 53rd with a score of 1.333.
At the Canadian press conference, Gurski was unequivocal: Islamist terrorism “remains at the top of the index and has been there since the inception of the GTI in 2014.” He added that wars in Iran, Gaza, and Lebanon are “perhaps feeding terrorism here in Canada. We are a country of diasporas.”
In the West, deaths surged 280% to 57, but religiously motivated attacks accounted for 53% of Western terrorism fatalities since 2007, despite comprising just 10% of incidents. Far-right and politically motivated violence are acknowledged as rising, especially among lone actors, but they do not drive the lethality spike. The report explicitly notes that far-left groups have carried out more attacks historically, yet far-right incidents have produced more fatalities, still secondary to jihadist outcomes.
Experts at the launch — including Gurski — stressed that Canada’s “zero” reflects successful prevention, not absence of threat. Islamist-inspired plots, diaspora risks, and online radicalization (now involving 42% of terror investigations in Europe and North America) remain the live wires.
The Cost of Threat Inflation
Perry’s selective data-driven narrative helped tilt CSIS and RCMP resources toward a 50/50 split between IMVE/far-right and Islamist threats. Yet actual arrests, charges, and GTI lethality metrics tell a different story. The result? Public perception skewed, policy distorted, and real jihadist pipelines under-scrutinized.
As Gurski has repeatedly argued, terrorism policy must compare “apples with apples” — not incidents with incidents. When far-left or hybrid violence like Tumbler Ridge gets filed under “generic violence” while far-right graffiti makes the extremism index, the data itself becomes politicized.
The 2026 GTI and Gurski’s parliamentary record outline that Canada’s terrorism threat is real, evolving, and still dominated by Islamist ideology globally and in Western lethality. It’s time for threat assessments to follow the evidence — not the activist-academic playbook.
Sources:
Global Terrorism Index 2026 – Full Report
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), March 2026.
Direct PDF: https://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Global-Terrorism-Index-2026-Report.pdf
(Data through Dec 31, 2025; Western trends pp. 34–36; Canada ranking p. 53)
CPAC Ottawa Launch Press Conference (GTI 2026 Canadian Release)
April 1, 2026 – featuring Michael Collins (IEP), Kyle Matthews (Montreal Institute for Global Security), and Phil Gurski (Borealis Threat and Risk Consulting).
Full video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fsCowrpw4eI
Barbara Perry – 2020 Al Jazeera Interview
“Far-right violence is Canada’s largest threat.”
Al Jazeera English, October 2020 (exact interview transcript and video archived).
True North FOI Request & IPC Ruling re: Perry’s 300+ far-right groups list
True North Centre for Public Policy vs. Ontario Tech University / Barbara Perry, 2022–2024.
Ontario Information and Privacy Commissioner final decision (September 2024) upholding refusal under FIPPA privacy exemptions. (True North coverage archived on their site.)
Barbara Perry & Ryan Scrivens – 2020 Academic Paper
“Proponents of RWE have been responsible for far greater harm over the past decade than violent jihadi-inspired terrorists.”
(Cited in NAADSN and multiple peer-reviewed outlets, 2020).
Phil Gurski – LinkedIn Post “The need to compare terrorists apples with terrorist apples.”
May 21, 2019.
Direct link (public post): https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/need-compare-terrorists-apples-terrorist-apples-phil-gurski/
House of Commons Standing Committee on Public Safety and National Security (SECU) – Meeting 31
May 31, 2021 – Evidence from Phil Gurski and Barbara Perry (same hearing).
Official transcript: https://www.ourcommons.ca/documentviewer/en/43-2/SECU/meeting-31/evidence
Tumbler Ridge Mass Shooting (Feb 10, 2026) – RCMP Classification
RCMP British Columbia detachment statements and ISD/ADL follow-up reporting (Feb–March 2026).
Classified as a mass shooting / criminal act of violence; no terrorism or IMVE designation.
CSIS Public Report on the Threat to Canada (various years 2019–2025)
Introduction of IMVE framework (2019 onward) and resource allocation notes.